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The Economy in 2016 and forecasts for 2017

Economic forecasts indicate that Romania will continue to have a growing economy, but below that of 2016, estimated by international financial organizations and various experts at 4.5 to 5.2%. The European Commission expects the growth in 2017 to reach 3.9% from its expectation of 5.2% in 2016, while the World Bank estimates a growth of 3.8% in 2017, the same figure issued by the International Monetary Fund. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects a 3.7% growth, matching Moody's 3.7% estimation, after issuing a forecast of 4.8% for 2016. The National Forecast Commission estimated 4.8% growth for 2016, and 4.2% for 2017.
 
According to a Moody's report, private consumption remains Romania's main engine for growth, though to a lesser extent than in 2016, considering expectations of higher oil prices and inflation. Continuing an expanding tax policy in 2017, including scrapping a tax on special purpose buildings and an additional fuel excise, as well as a cut in the VAT, will result in a deterioration of Romania's fiscal position. The agency expects the fiscal deficit to exceed 3% of the GDP in 2017, since measures increasing it would counter solid economic growth. Moody's expects Romania's credit rating to be negatively impacted by the deterioration of its fiscal policy, along with its effect on its fiscal position.
 
In his turn, economic analyst Constantin Rudnitchi explains: “We also have a piece of good news from statistics, the fact that investments start taking up a bigger slice of this economic growth, therefore this is a good thing, as investment may balance out a bit better against consumption in terms of economic growth".

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