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The National Institute of Statistics (NIS) announced that investments in the economy rose in the first semester, compared to the same period last year, by 20%, to 28.89 billion lei, after an advance of 19.5% in the second quarter compared to April-June 2011. In the second quarter, investments regarding the equipment (including vehicles), increased by 28%, and new constructions, by17.1%, but decreased by 3.7% to other expenses category.
In a statement of the NIS it is said that "compared to the second quarter of 2011, in the second quarter of 2012, there is an increase of the percentage of equipment (including vehicles) in total investment by 1.7 percentage points and in new constructions by 0.2 percentage points. The share of investments in other expenses decreased by 1.9 percentage points".
Investments that have materialized in new constructions summed 14.925 billion lei in the first semester, representing 51.7% of the total, compared to 51% in the first semester of 2011. Investments in machinery and transport equipment summed 11.715 billion lei, representing 40.5% of the total, compared to 39.8% in the first semester of the year.
Branches which registred a higher volume of investments are in industry and commerce / services (wholesale and retail trade, the repair of motor vehicles).
National Bank data shows that foreign direct investments had a decline of 28.9% in the first semester, reaching 621 million Euro.
Romania is the 6th most attractive European country for investments over the next three years, according to the 2012 report „The European Attractiveness Survey” conducted by the consulting company Ernst & Young (E&Y).Thus, Romania is more attractive than the Czech Republic, Turkey, Switzerland, Netherlands, Italy, Spain and Sweden. The first five positions in the ranking are occupied, in order, by Germany, Poland, United Kingdom, Russia and France.
Despite the fragility of the Eurozone economy, investment flows to Europe continued to grow in 2011, the number of investment projects is considerably higher than before the crisis, rising by 2%, from 3757 in 2010, to 3906 in 2011, and the number of jobs generated by foreign direct investments increased by 15%.
U.S. remains the largest investor in Europe, developing 1028 projects, which represent 26% of the total. The number of investment projects developed by the U.S. increased by 6% in 2011, reaching the highest level registered by the Ernst & Young’ survey in the past 10 years.
Investors are quite confident in Europe's ability to overcome the complex and multiple difficulties that it faces, so Western Europe is considered the most attractive destination for foreign direct investments (FDI), after China, while Central and Eastern Europe ranks third.
The economics of Central and Eastern Europe lead regarding the investments in manufacturing industries. Romania, Serbia, Slovakia and Czech Republic have attracted 53% of the new jobs created in the automobile industry. These countries have attracted large projects that have competitive advantages of costs and trading partners like Germany, where the most important industrial clients are.
Professional services and software production sectors have received the most FDI in Europe, with an increase of 19% and 15% in 2011. Together, these two sectors have attracted 28% of all projects developed last year,
generating over 16,000 new jobs.
The number of FDI projects increased also in the automobile industry, creating the largest number of new jobs: 37,790.
Sectors that registered the largest decline in 2011 were financial intermediation services, which decreased by 16%, and electronics, which fell by 8%.
For Romania, the National Bank of Romania data shows that foreign direct investment in 2011 reached the last nine years minimum, 1.917 billion €, and continued to decline in 2012 to 490 million € after the first four months.
But Romania has the advantage of a promising growth rate of GDP compared to Europe's and a valuable human capital, more investors being attracted by the renewable energy sector.
E&Y announced that the estimated value of mergers and acquisitions completed in the first five months in Romania is about 800 million dollars, almost double than the level recorded in the same period in 2011. transactions whose values have been announced by the parties –only- were of 330 million $ compared to 216 million $ in January-May 2011.
Extrapolating, E & Y estimates for the first five months a total market of 798 million $ compared to 408 million $ in first five months of 2011.
The National Institute of Statistics shows Romania’s exports amounted to 45 billion Euros in 2011, registering a 20.5% increase, as compared to 2010 and the volume of imports increased by 16.7%, up to some 54.7 billion Euros. If we draw a line, Romania’s trade deficit stands at some 9.7 billion Euros, close to the level registered in 2010. As regards exchanges of goods within the EU, in 2011, the volume of exports stood at 32 billion Euros and of imports at 39.7 billion Euros, accounting for 71.1 % of the total volume of exports and for 72.6% of the total volume of imports. In 2011, Romania’s exports to non-EU countries continued to follow an upward trend. A significant increase in the volume of exports to Canada was noticeable in 2011, especially in the field of machinery, electrical devices, boilers, nuclear equipment and spare parts for planes.
More spare parts for cars and chemical products were exported to the US. The volume of exports to Brazil also increased, consisting mainly in cars, spare parts for cars, rolling stock and oil-field equipment. The volume of exports to the Russian Federation, the Ukraine and Turkey was also on the rise. However, in December 2011, an increase of only 0.2% was registered in the volume of exports, as compared to December 2010, because the “Nokia” plant in Cluj County was closed down, the Finnish cell phone producer being the second largest exporter in Romania in 2011, after the “Automobile Dacia Groupe Renault”. However, economic analysts say the place left vacant by Nokia, in terms of exports, will be filled by the Italian company DeLonghi which took over some of the production units previously held by Nokia in Cluj County. Additionally, the German car part producer Bosch has made public its intention to make an investment in Romania.
In 2010, Romania’s main companies which exported products to EU member states were “Automobile Dacia Groupe Renault”, “Nokia Romania” (which has withdrawn from Romania), “Honeywell Technologies”, “OMV Petrom”, the “Daewoo” shipyard in Mangalia, the tyre producer Continental Romania, the “ALRO Slatina” aluminium works and the company “Rompetrol Rafinare”, which is held by “KazMunaiGaz”, a state-owned company from Kazakhstan. The main companies which exported products to non-EU countries were the “Arcelor Mittal Galati” steel works, “Rompetrol Rafinare”, “Nokia Romania”, “Automobile Dacia Groupe Renault”, “OMV Petrom”, “Petrotel Lukoil”, the “Holzindustrie Schweighofer” wood working plant and “Azomures” chemical works in Targu Mures.
Romania’s products are mainly exported to Germany, Italy, France, Turkey, Hungary, Bulgaria, the United Kingdom and Spain. Along the same line, Romania imports products mainly from Germany, Italy, Hungary, France, China, the Russian Federation, Austria and the Netherlands
In its annual report for 2011, the rating agency Moody's anticipates that Romania's GDP will grow by 2.2% this year, with the acceleration of the absorption of European funds, while inflation will remain close to the target of the Central Bank in Bucharest.
According to Moody's, the uncertain economic situation in the eurozone against the backdrop of the crisis of public debts, affect, however, the prospects for economic growth of Romania. The Agency notes that approximately 70% of Romania’s exports go to European countries, and a slowdown in the rate of growth in Europe would also undermine the growth rate in Romania.
The analysis also pointed out that a faster absorption of European funds and the growth of domestic investment should offset the decline in exports, maintaining economic growth over the 2% top in 2012.
Inflation, which hit in September and November, two new lows since 1990, dropped to 3% in December, Moody's currency, and will maintain the same level even at the end of this year. The document also mentioned the possibility that the fiscal deficit registers a fall below 5% of GDP in 2011, in accordance with the target of the government. On the other hand, about 80% of Romania's banking sector is controlled by foreign banks. With the easing of inflationary pressures, the National Bank will relax monetary policy conditions, intent pointed out by the recent reduction in key interest. The Central Bank has lowered the interest of monetary policy of 0.25% to 5.75% in November after he had made a similar reduction.
Moody's assigns Baa3 rating to Romania, with a stable outlook, supported by the relatively low level of public debt, access to external financing and the prospect of a promising economic growth on medium term. All this can compensate for the population’s low income compared to other countries in the region, the large deficit in the balance between savings and investment, fiscal pressures and persistent poor performance of public investment and state-owned companies.
The European Commission has found Romania's plan to support the production of energy from renewable energy sources in line with EU state aid rules, in particular, because it creates clear incentives for an increased use of renewable energy such as, for example, the system of green certificates.
"The green certificate scheme is a market based mechanism, which will encourage investments in renewable energy in Romania. It will thus support Romania's objective to reach the 2020 renewable energy targets without unduly distorting competition" says European Commission Vice-President in charge of competition policy Joaquin Almunia.
Green certificates are granted to electricity producers for each MWh generated from wind, hydro, biomass, landfill gas,
sewage plant treatment gas or solar.If the energy is produced in high efficiency co-generation plants, a bonus is applied.
The number of green certificates will vary depending on the type of source used to produce energy, in fact it goes: one,
for energy produced from anaerobic digestion of sewage sludge and waste, two, for wind and hydro energy, three, for biomass from energy crops and six, for solar energy.
The certificates issued by the state to the producers can be sold to the energy suppliers on a specific market (independent
of the electricity market). The electricity suppliers have the obligation to acquire annually a certain number of green
certificates. If they fail to do so they must pay a penalty.The penalties are collected by the transmission system operator and transferred to the Romanian Environmental Fund, which will use them for support to small individual producers of electricity from renewable sources. The beneficiaries of green certificates will be able to enter the scheme until 31 December 2016, Agerpres informs.
The European Commissioner for Agriculture, Dacian Ciolos has said ”Romania will be one of the few member states to benefit from the future budget of the common agricultural policy, that is, it will enjoy a larger financial allocation than now, both for pillar one and for rural development, but it will have to define its objectives in agriculture, and pay special heed to the three major objectives: food safety, the good management of natural resources and the cohesion of the rural territory.”
Romanian agriculture minister, Valeriu Tabara has set the main objective as redressing the trade balance for foodstuffs. He has said ”Romania has the potential to produce and not to demand, to export and not to import wheat and corn. I am confident that in two-three years’ time, Romania’s agriculture will find itself in an area that won’t just boast high potential, but will also boast a basis for partnerships, in the Romanian and foreign markets.”
The balance of payments deficit in agricultural products fell last year. Sources with the Agriculture Ministry say imports in 2010 amounted to 3.8 billion Euros and exports, 3 billion Euros.
Analysts predict the Romanian economy to grow by some 0.7 to 2 percent over the course of 2011. The IMF, the European Commission and the Romanian Government through its state budget law for this year forecast a growth of 1.5 percent. The same law also predicts a budget deficit of 4.4 percent of the GDP and an inflation rate of 5.3 percent. In addition, for 2012, experts estimate an economic growth of some 4 percent.
According to a study by UniCredit, the Romanian economy will grow by 1.7 percent this year, mostly as a result of the solid increase in exports. This may improve the country’s credit ranking. UniCredit experts also say domestic demand will make a slight comeback in the second half of the year, contributing to the predicted 1.7 economic growth.
Foreign investments can also contribute to economic growth in Romania, according to Eugen Radulescu, a director with the National Bank of Romania: “Foreign investments should normally increase in 2011, because the measures adopted in 2010 as well as the Labour Code, which is now more flexible, should have a favourable impact on investors’ interest in investing in Romania. They should have a favourable impact on the unemployment rate as well.”
Mention should be made that a report made public by the Austrian group Erste, direct foreign investments could be resumed in Romania concurrently with the global economic recovery, particularly in sectors like industrial goods, agriculture and the food industry, the IT& C area and renewable energy.
In 2010, direct foreign investment in Romania amounted to 2.6 billion Euros, registering a 25.5% drop as compared to the previous year. A report issued by the Austrian Group Erste shows direct foreign investment in Romania will go up when global economy picks up, and it will be channeled towards such sectors as industrial goods, agriculture, the food industry, and the IT&C and renewable energy industry.
Labour productivity in the processing industry increased by over 12% in both 2009 and 2010, while the real increase in wages was smaller”, the Erste analysts say. Some of the main trump cards which make Romania an area of interest for foreign investors are its size, as it is one of the largest markets in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as its location at the crossroads of three European transport routes- namely corridors no. 4, 7 and 9. Additionally, the labor force is generally well trained, boasting thorough technological, IT and engineering knowledge. Other advantages are natural resources, including farmland, oil and natural gas reserves, and a huge tourist potential.
At a recent meeting with potential investors from Gulf countries, the governor of the National Bank of Romania, Mugur Isarescu said that our country offers many, diverse and solid profit-making investment opportunities on long term. Isarescu said Romania’s economy has stabilized.
Mugur Isarescu:”I think that infrastructure in general, and not only road, but also naval infrastructure, such as the port of Constanta and Galatz, offer important business opportunities. They are the extremely efficient gateway to Europe. The Danube is a navigation channel which takes us to the heart of Europe. A second area is, undoubtedly, agriculture, and I’m not referring only to all those forecasts on the deterioration of the food situation at world level, but also to Romania’s still unused potential: tracts of land, tradition, labour force and the European funds it can attract. I think legislation in the field of agriculture should be improved, because both Romanian and foreign partners, as well as banks, will be reticent to fund small or very small properties, which stand low chances of becoming profitable. Finally, energy is the third area. Romania boasts a longstanding tradition in this field, and I think it can be successfully capitalized on.”
In turn, Andreea Paul Vass, the counselor of PM Emil Boc, has made public some of the methods the Romanian state is using to support the business sector and investors. First of all, the state uses state assistance schemes for investments exceeding 5 million Euros and which lead to the creation of at least 50 jobs: ”The state assistance scheme has been improved and it became significantly more flexible during the economic crisis, because it was extremely difficult to find investment to create minimum 300 jobs, as had been the case before and it was equally difficult to draft investment plans worth at least 100 million Euros. This state assistance scheme allows for the return of 50% of the value of the investment plan, but no more than 28 million Euros.”
Thanks to this scheme, 10 major projects worth over 700 million Euros have received funding worth 215 million Euros. Approximately 5,000 jobs have been created.
Romania has entered a new period of economic growth, but it needs to take things slowly so as not to go through another traumatising experience. This statement was made by the governor of the National Bank of Romania, Mugur Isarescu, in a meeting with Arab investors attending a forum of cooperation between Persian Gulf states and Romania, hosted by Bucharest.
According to Isarescu, Romania’s economy has made the necessary adjustments with regard to its deficits and is now prepared for a new cycle of sustainable growth. The National Bank’s estimates for this year point to a 1.5% economic growth, but the figure could be higher if significant investment were made in infrastructure and agriculture. These are precisely the areas in which the governor of the National Bank believes the Persian Gulf investors could become involved. Mugur Isarescu: “I believe infrastructure, in general, not only road, but also maritime infrastructure such as the port of Constanta and Galati, offers significant investment opportunities. Constanta is an extremely efficient gate to Europe. The Danube is also a navigation route that takes us to the heart of Europe. Agriculture is another good area for investment. By agriculture I am referring not only to the forecasts regarding the deterioration of the global food situation, but also to Romania’s untapped potential, including land, tradition, labour, and European funds.”
In other words, Romania is a country with a stable economy providing many investment opportunities. What else does it need? Governor Isarescu again: “I don’t necessarily think it needs money, but entrepreneurs, viable projects and people capable of carrying these projects through. We are a country with many unfinished projects. 40,000 budget investment projects are unfinished. For me, as an economist, this almost says it all. It explains the economic growth and the high inflation rate, and why you can’t feel the difference despite the 5% of GDP allocated to investment.”
Mugur Isarescu told investors that the Central Bank in Bucharest will try to keep the inflation rate in check, and that it
hopes to reduce it to less than 4% by the end of the year, through this is dependent upon international food and oil
prices.
Coming back at the helm of the Transport Ministry has expressed intention to promote a new policy, meant to attract larger investments in infrastructure and to absorb more European funds for transport projects in Romania.
Going ahead with the upgrading of the road infrastructure in Romania continues to be a priority, the minister has said and added that projects worth over 5.5 billion Euros will be launched by the end of next year.These sums include the funds already allotted for the bids organized this year. Anca Boagiu has said several sectors of highways, measuring 243 Kms, are under construction. The total value of the project is 2.5 billion Euros and should be completed by 2011 –2012.
By the end of next year, bids should be organized for the construction of some other 290 km of highway, worth 2.5 billion Euros. Other projects are related to the construction of 11 ring roads. All these ring roads have a total length of 138 km and a total value of 540 million Euros.
The Transport Ministry also intends to modernize 950 km of national roads, an investment worth 848 million Euros, that is obtained by a credit from the European Investment Bank.
As regards railway infrastructure, special heed will be paid to the upgrading of the Pan-European Corridor IV.
Bids for three segments will be organized in the west of the country. They have a total length of 166 km and are worth 1.8 billion Euros.
As regards naval transport, the ministry envisages important projects, with a total value of 200 million Euros, which include the building of a road bridge over the Danube-Black Sea canal, including the necessary infrastructure works to offer access to the Constanta port. The deadline of the project is 2012-2013. Last but not least, on December the 20th, the ministry will launch a project meant to rehabilitate bridges over the Danube.
According to the same data, between January and July 2010, revenues went up by 1.2%, especially due to the collection of VAT and excises, while general expenditure increased by 3.2%. Personnel expenses went down by 4.7% and, goods and services expenditure also diminished by 2.2% as compared to the same period last year. The most significant drop was registered in the state budget, 24.8%, while local budget expenditure grew by 7.8%.
In another move, the National Statistics Institute has recently announced that in the second quarter of the year, Romania’s GDP registered a slight increase of 0.3%, as compared to the first quarter, but it’s still dropping if we compare it with the corresponding period of last year, therefore the economy as a whole actually contracted by 1.5% in the first six months of 2010.
PM Emil Boc has commented the recent statistics, according to which Romania is about to overcome recession. He has stated that although this growth is timid, it is the first after several quarters of recession. Boc believes that the situation would have been better if flooding had not hit and the Constitutional Court had not overturned the Government’s decision to cut pensions by 15%. As a result, the executive decided to increase the VAT from 19 to 24%. Emil Boc:
Noi suntem contabilii si consultantii fiscali care va ajuta sa va indepliniti obiectivele.